Analitycs
FT: Kiev debt costs rise over Moscow worries
The cost of insuring Ukraine’s debt against restructuring or default rose to its highest since the 2004 Orange Revolution on Tuesday, as investors fretted that the Kremlin’s spat with the west could spill over into a vast country of 46m people that straddles the divide between a resurgent Russia and the European Union. →
Stratfor: The Real World Order
By George Friedman
On Sept. 11, 1990, U.S. President George H. W. Bush addressed Congress. He spoke in the wake of the end of Communism in Eastern Europe, the weakening of the Soviet Union, and the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein. He argued that a New World Order was emerging: “A hundred generations have searched for this elusive path to peace, while a thousand wars raged across the span of human endeavor, and today that new world is struggling to be born. A world quite different from the one we’ve known. A world where the rule of law supplants the rule of the jungle. A world in which nations recognize the shared responsibility for freedom and justice. A world where the strong respect the rights of the weak.” →
The Irish Times: Head to Head
Is the conflict in Georgia a sign of renewed Russian aggression? Daragh McDowell agrees with the motion, but Seamus Martin disagrees
Russia deliberately provoked the war in Georgia as part of a wider strategy of bringing ex-Soviet states to heel, writes Daragh McDowell
TOL: Moscow’s Power Divide
The Georgian crisis shows that an emergent force could sideline both Medvedev and Putin.
WASHINGTON | Dmitry Medvedev inherited the post of president of the Russian Federation from Vladimir Putin, and while Putin moved down the pecking order and became prime minister, there has been a great deal of speculation about an eventual split between Russia’s two highest leaders. →
The Independent: Do not feed the bear’s paranoia
Western leaders should adapt their rhetoric to show a more thoughtful realism and understanding of Russian fears
Independent on Sunday
Sunday, 17 August 2008
New York Times: Europe Wonders if It Can Square Its Need for Russia With a Distaste for Putin
PARIS — As NATO foreign ministers gather Tuesday for an emergency meeting on the Georgian crisis, Europe is divided over how to balance its ties to Russia with concerns over the country’s new aggressiveness. →
New York Times: Europe Wonders if It Can Square Its Need for Russia With a Distaste for Putin
PARIS — As NATO foreign ministers gather Tuesday for an emergency meeting on the Georgian crisis, Europe is divided over how to balance its ties to Russia with concerns over the country’s new aggressiveness.
The European dilemma is clear, said Clifford Kupchan, a director of the Eurasia Group, a consulting firm in Washington. “How do they square their increasing energy dependence on Russia with their increasing political discomfort with Putin?” he said, referring to Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin. “It’s a very hard circle to square.”
The Wall Street Journal: Змусити Путіна заплатити
Making Putin Pay
Vladimir Putin proved last weekend that Russia’s army can push over Georgia’s army. In the past 48 hours, the West has begun to push back. If its leaders stay the course, they may yet turn Mr. Putin’s meager military success into a significant political defeat. →
Analitycs: TOL: When Frozen Conflicts Melt Down
Russian passports become the weapon of choice in disputed regions of the former Soviet Union?
The label “frozen conflict” as applied to the wars that accompanied the breakup of the Soviet Union implies that, some day, they may well “unfreeze.” This is what happened in Georgia. →
The Guardian: The bear’s Achilles heel
Charles Grant
The Guardian, Friday August 15 2008 22:00 BST
For many American commentators, plucky little Georgia has been the victim of Russian imperialism. The Guardian’s Seumas Milne takes an equally simplistic view: Russia is blameless for a war caused by US “expansion”. Both schools of thought agree that Russia has been the conflict’s big winner. In the long run, I am not so sure. Russia has much more to lose from a period of frosty relations with the west than either the Americans or the Europeans.
Russia’s Achilles heel is its economy. This has been growing fast, at over 7% a year. Wealth has spread out from the energy companies and the government, helping to create a prosperous middle class. But the economy remains dangerously dependent on energy and raw materials. Russia has very few high-tech industries, its record on innovation is appalling, it has too few small and medium-sized companies and its service industries are backward.